Staff Picks: 91st Academy Awards Predictions
It has surely been a strange awards season in movie-land, but the staff and committee members behind the Frank Banko Alehouse Cinemas are here to help you win your office pool or at least make a little sense of what will go down at the Oscars on Sunday night!
Speaking of the 2019 Academy Awards®, you can join us for the live telecast at the Red Carpet Party in the Frank Banko Alehouse Cinemas.
Our picks this year are based on ballots submitted by: Ryan Hill, Programming Director; Dana Baker, Cinema Specialist; Anthony DeSanctis, Cinema and Comedy Coordinator; Rickey Negron, Cinema and Comedy Assistant; Lauren Tocci, Cinema Committee & First Saturday Horror Co-Curator; Bob Kilker, Cinema Committee & host of our Tuesday Talkbacks; Paul McEwan, Cinema Committee & Director of Muhlenberg College’s Film Studies Program; Catherine Ford, Cinema Committee; Jason Paulus*, Cinema Committee; and Jennifer Suwak & Steve Abruzzese (who made their choices together), Cinema Committee and GLVFF-award winning filmmakers.
*Jason has won first place in the Oscar Ballot Challenge at the past TWO Red Carpet Parties, meaning 1) he hasn’t paid for a ticket to the FBAC in two years and 2) you should probably listen to his picks more than anyone else’s here (they’re listed at the bottom of the post).
BEST PICTURE
Will win: Roma (75% of the group votes)
Should win: The Favourite (40%)
Only BlacKkKlansman (Ryan) and Green Book (Bob) were picked as non-Roma ‘will wins’ by the group, as Roma has won 20 similar awards so far this season while Green Book has 6. Meaning Ryan’s pick – which has 0 of these wins – is quite risky.
Anthony: Roma is simply breathtaking and absorbing. It’s a film we’ll talk about for years.
Lauren: This is Spike Lee’s year with BlacKkKlansman. Remove the “long overdue” narrative. This is just a great film; it balances quieter moments with brilliant speed and camera movements when the punch is needed.
Ryan: The Acadamy will reward Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) over and over again on Sunday night, but they won’t give Netflix the opportunity to say that they made a Best Picture winner. So BlacKkKlansman is my WILL win (and upset pick of the night) because I believe a lot of new Academy voters want to reward Spike Lee after years of the old ones ignoring him.
BEST DIRECTOR
Will win: Alfonso Cuarón, Roma (80%)
Should win: Tie: Cuarón & Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman (40% each)
Adam McKay (Vice) and Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) did not receive any votes from the group, many of which believe this category should have included Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Paul Schrader (First Reformed), and/or Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here) instead. Cuarón has racked up 32 similar wins this season, with the next in line having only 3 (Lee).
Rickey: Roma is a lesson in delicate craftsmanship. We could learn a lot from Cuarón’s distinctive directorial style and thoughtful execution.
Catherine: I see BlacKkKlansman as one of Lee’s best films.
Bob: Yorgos Lanthimos deserves the win for The Favourite, a surreal, hilarious, yet emotionally resonant film.
BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Will win: Glenn Close, The Wife (88%)
Should win: Close (30%)
Only Jen & Steve see Lady Gaga as a ‘will win’ and no one has Olivia Colman (The Favourite) in that category despite 19 similar wins so far this season; the next in that line is Toni Collette (Hereditary) with 11, but she wasn’t even nominated. All of the nominees received ‘should win’ votes from the group.
Lauren: Close’s performance exists in its polarities, a storm of restrained feelings, a master class in the balance between control and unbridled resentment. She definitely deserves the top honors. But Olivia Colman has to balance between two stunning performances and representing a queen seemingly powerless, grieving, indulgent, and insecure. I think she has many performances like this within her, but this one is special.
Paul: Much has been written about how Yalitza Aparicio’s (Roma) character doesn’t have enough a voice, but her performance says what it needs to.
BEST LEAD ACTOR
Will win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody (86%)
Should win: Christian Bale, Vice (45%)
Very few in the group can understand how Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) could have been left off this list; he has 28 similar wins this season, while Malek and Bale only have 6 each. Only Lauren believes that Bale will win on Sunday and just 25% of the group thinks Malek should win, making for the biggest difference between ‘will win’ and ‘should win’ on these ballots.
Paul: Bale’s portrayal of a character at all those ages is really hard. It was the only thing Orson Welles couldn’t do convincingly.
Bob: Bale disappeared into the role of Dick Cheney, but I think Malek will be rewarded in part because of our culture’s much greater affection for Freddie Mercury.
Anthony: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born) gave the performance of the year, in my opinion.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book (86%)
Should win: Ali (45%)
Here’s another category wherein the nominee with the most similar wins (Richard E. Grant – 18 for his role in Can You Ever Forgive Me) wasn’t picked by anyone in the group as a ‘will-win’ (though he received 30% of the ‘should win’ vote), which has a lot to do with the fact that Ali’s been taking the major wins so far and has 12 total. While there’s some pull for the criminally underrated Sam Elliot (A Star is Born) to get the nod, his lack of use in the film is a major strike against.
Rickey: Ali’s Green Book role has a lot more substance than his role in Moonlight and he’s been on a winning streak ever since. Faultless performance in every way, but a shoutout to Sam Elliot because he’s one of the strongest actors, period, and has yet to be rightfully recognized.
Lauren: Grant’s turn as a trickster, both heartbreaking and frustrating, demonstrates the power of a smile to fool an audience in to the playfulness of the moment, and a subtle turn in the eyes that reveals the truth of this character, one deeply rooted in pain.
Ryan: If the Oscars had a Best Chemistry award, Grant and Melissa McCarthy would win in a landslide.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk (71%)
Should win: King (40%)
King is the front-runner here with 30 similar wins while Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone (both from The Favourite) have 6 and 3, respectively. Stone received 30% of the ‘should win’ votes as many believe hers to be the best performance in The Favourite, but her previous win in the Lead Actress category will likely have voters checking off other names. Jen & Steve have Amy Adams (Vice) as a ‘will win’ despite her having only 1 similar win under her belt.
Bob: If Beale Street Could Talk hasn’t received the awards-season attention it deserves, but Regina King’s work in the film has rightfully been honored for her warm, heartbreaking performance.
Lauren: Rachel Weisz’s performance is wry, stunning, and imbues each scene with a dripping snark and control that makes this film special.
Anthony: I found Stone’s villainous turn to be fascinating and cruel. She played against type and showed she’s a force to be reckoned with.
Jason Paulus’s WILL WIN picks:
Picture: Roma
Director: Cuarón
Actor: Malek
Actress: Close
Supporting Actress: King
Supporting Actor: Ali
