2022 Oscar Predictions
The staff and committee members behind the Frank Banko Alehouse Cinemas are here to help you win your office pool or make at least a little sense of what might happen on Sunday night!
Our picks this year are based on ballots submitted by:
- Ryan Hill, Sr. Director of Programming
- Anthony DeSanctis, Programming Manager and Lead Programmer of the Frank Banko Alehouse Cinemas. Director of the Greater Lehigh Valley Filmmaker Festival (GLVFF)
- Alessandra Fanelli, Cinema Committee Member, Curator of the Cinema Significa… Film Series and Co-Curator of the LGBTQ+ Film Series
- Lauren Tocci, Cinema Committee Member, Co-Curator of the First Saturday Horror Series
BEST PICTURE
WILL WIN: CODA (Ryan, Anthony); West Side Story (Lauren); The Power of the Dog (Alessandra)
SHOULD WIN: CODA (Anthony); The Power of the Dog (Ryan, Alessandra); West Side Story (Lauren)
Ryan: I’ll be happy with a win for either CODA or The Power of the Dog; I just believe the latter to have been more of a risk, overall. While CODA’s SAG ensemble award was truly well deserved, I believe The Power of the Dog to be a true masterpiece.
Anthony: This is a two-way race between CODA and The Power of the Dog and there’s a very real chance of either winning but the late-in-the-game but significant accolades at the SAG, WGA, and PGA I think give CODA the uphill advantage. It’s also more of a crowd-please among the Academy.
Lauren: With the gym sequence alone this movie reminds film lovers why the Hollywood musical has been such a staple in filmmaking. I often vote with my heart over watching prediction trends, but something about the awards season makes me feel like this is the surprise ahead. It won’t be surprising at all, it deserves it and this film is a masterclass in directing and choreography.
Alessandra: Though I loved WSS, it was still problematic. The Power of the Dog is hands down the best on the list. It’s consistent, gripping, and more importantly…doesn’t follow a plot line like Licorice Pizza.
BEST DIRECTOR
WILL WIN: Jane Campion (Anthony, Lauren, Alessandra); Steven Spielberg (Ryan)
SHOULD WIN: Jane Campion (Ryan, Alessandra); Steven Spielberg (Anthony); Lauren refuses to answer!
Alessandra: Would be the first time a woman won two years in a row. Will be interesting to see what has been favorable with The Power of the Dog- the piece or how the director crafted it.
Anthony: Campion will win as she’s been cleaning up everywhere. But I think Spielberg should take this as, honestly, he took one of the most beloved movies of all time and made it better. And you felt his presence on every frame. This is something only one of the greatest directors of all time can do. Still not over the Denis Villeneuve snub. I didn’t realize Dune directed itself!
Lauren: Despite the recent awkward and uncomfortable blunder Campion has been a dynamic and forthright presence in awards season. The Power of the Dog is a brilliantly directed film, well-paced, and beautifully executed. The performances in this film are great, but I walked away talking more about the direction first. As for who I think should win, I can make a case for every director this year. It means whoever wins I will be pleased. There is something about Belfast that really touches something personal and intimate. The converse of that is the spectacle and precision of West Side Story. I can’t be mad at any candidate winning this year, and that makes for a very fun Oscars night and why I am completely abstaining from picking who I want to win, and just hoping for a great speech.
Ryan: Campion does actually seem to be the frontrunner here, but I’m concerned people thinking her film will take Best Picture will leave the old guard to reward Spielberg yet again. It wouldn’t necessarily be undeserved, though I believe West Side Story to be more of a master class in cinematography than it is filmmaking. Campion, however, shows a deft, craftsman-like touch in ever so gently, but steadily, ramping up the tension in a movie that is far from gentle.
BEST ACTOR
WILL WIN: Will Smith, King Richard (Alessandra, Anthony, Lauren, Ryan)
SHOULD WIN: Will Smith (Anthony, Ryan); Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick.. Boom (Alessandra); a Garfield/Smith tie (Lauren)
Alessandra: The odds are ever in Will Smith’s favor, and he’s deserving…however…there is absolutely nothing more honest than Andrew Garfield’s performance as Jonathan Larson. Also, who know he could sing? He’s amazing. Pun intended.
Anthony: This is a done deal. He poured his heart and soul into this role and in my opinion, it’s easily the best performance of his career. Never at one point did I feel I was watching Will Smith, I only saw Richard.
Lauren: I love a great Oscars moment for a long respected actor, and Will Smith has proved many times over his career that he deserves to have that prestigious recognition. My dream scenario is for the actor I grew up watching to tie with the performance that had me out of my seat, Andrew Garfield as Jonathan Larson. TICK, TICK,…BOOM was critically underrated during this awards season, and it would be Oscars magic to somehow see both of them up there.
Ryan: Truly a powerhouse of a field this time around, but the shock would compare to last year’s surprise Hopkins-over-Boseman win if Will Smith doesn’t get this win. He has the fact that he’s a long time vet without a trophy in his corner, for one, but, more importantly, he did the damn work and turned in what I believe to be his best performance as an actor. He just hasn’t yet figured out how to one up the masterwork that is Parents Just Don’t Understand, however.
BEST ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Lauren, Anthony, Ryan, Alessandra)
SHOULD WIN: Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter (Ryan); Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers (Lauren); Kristen Stewart, Spencer (Anthony, Alessandra)
Alessandra: Favoring honest “reincarnations” to traditional biopics is my theme for the two lead categories. Kristen Stewart is vulnerable and engaging, you can’t look away from her.
Anthony: This was an incredible lineup of nominees. Maybe one of my favorite lineups ever actually. But Stewart was the only one to me that from the start of the film, I never saw the actress. There was just… Diana. And it was powerful and heartbreaking.
Lauren: I love Cruz’s performance. It is the kind of story that could easily have a big screaming throwing glasses moment, but she communicates all the emotion of this story in such a grounded manner. However, like many tides I think this one has turned for Chastain, and I am not mad at it. She made Tammy Faye accessible in a way I didn’t expect. Plus Oscars LOOOOVE a big makeup transformation. #NicoleKidmanshouldhavewonforMoulinRougenotTheHours
Ryan: Part of the reason I think Colman should win this does, I admit, have to do with how pissed I am that Maggie Gyllenhaal isn’t quite getting her due for her absolutely incredible debut as a director. But Colman proves yet again she’s one of the best out there as she captivates while her character frustrates. Chastain is great in Eyes of Tammy Faye – I won’t be mad when she wins – but it’s like when Viola Davis is in a category, how do you vote against a master?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
WILL WIN: Troy Kotsur, CODA (Alessandra, Anthony, Ryan); Kodi-Smit McPhee, The Power of the Dog (Lauren)
SHOULD WIN: Troy Kotsur, CODA (Anthony, Lauren, Ryan); J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos (Alessandra)
Alessandra: J.K. Simmons is a perfect example of a foil character- this performance served very well…but doesn’t compete with the statistics favoring Troy Costur.
Anthony: I remember walking out of the movie back in August thinking “I hope gets an Oscar nomination.” He’s electric every time he’s on screen.
Lauren: The SAG Awards have me hopeful that the heartwarming and tear inducing performance by Kotsur to triumph, and it is hard for me to see a more deserving performance in this grouping. However. I think the energy is leaning The Power of the Dog right now and Smit-McPhee has all the momentum to take it home.
Ryan: All the momentum is truly going Kotsur’s way as we head into Oscars week, with SAG, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice wins under his belt. He is something of an anchor for CODA, which I sometimes found veering into the sappy side of sentimentality until Kotsur’s character would show up and do something like make a fart joke or, as his daughter sang to him, feel the vibrations of that singing on her throat in a way that reduced me to giant leaking tear duct. The rest of the field is quite worthy of being there, but none of those performances quite reach the range Kotsur shows in CODA.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
WILL WIN: Ariana DeBose for West Side Story (Alessandra, Anthony, Lauren, Ryan)
SHOULD WIN: Ariana DeBose for West Side Story (Alessandra, Anthony, Lauren, Ryan)
Anthony: I mean, she steals EVERY scene she’s in. So much passion, energy, and emotion in every scene. The award is hers to lose. There has to be an unwritten rule somewhere that says if you play Anita in West Side Story on film, you’ll get an Oscar because DeBose is about to repeat history 60 years after Rita Moreno won the Oscar for the same role.
Lauren: The Academy can’t break my heart like they did last year with Chadwick Boseman not winning, but my jaw will be on the floor if DeBose doesn’t win. For a character performed and revived thousands of times she brings new vitality to the portrayal and that last act is nothing short of remarkable. Give. her. the. gold.
Ryan: Probably the easiest lock of the so-called ‘big’ awards; DeBose deserves every second of this glory simply for being the only Anita I’ve ever seen pull off making us believe that she can actually forgive Maria, or just move forward in general (spoiler: I’ve never liked the story that is West Side Story). I could make an argument for Aunjanue Ellis in her turn as Brandy Williams here – she more than holds her own opposite Smith in King Richard – but DeBose is the clear favorite and deservedly so.
Join the excitement with tickets to
The Red Carpet Party on Sunday, March 27th at Frank Banko Alehouse Cinemas!
